An Unbiased opinion

Monday, November 17, 2008

Offseason Trade Reaction - Olsen, Willingham to Nats


The Marlins and Nationals had a trade 7 days ago. Summing it up;

The Nats got ::: Scott Olsen (LHP) - Josh Willingham (OF)
The Fish got ::: Emilio Bonifacio (2B) - P.J. Dean (RHP) - Jake Smolinski (SS)

My Thoughts: The Nats came out on the better end. Scott Olsen threw 201 IP this year, and even with a declining strikeout rate, posted a 4.20 ERA. Lefties that are durable at a young age really don't come around too often. Olsen fits into the rotation nicely with John Lannan, another young lefty. Josh Willingham is a 30 year old outfielder who has had injury problems but if healthy could probably produce a line of 20 HR / 80 RBI / .265 / .330 / .460, which might be able to be shipped off mid-season for decent prospects.

On the other end, the Marlins recieved 3 prospects, all of whom have a pretty decent shot at making the MLB, but none will be difference makers. Emilio Bonifacio, 23, could at best become a .290 hitter with decent D and little power at second base - but then what happens to Dan Uggla? His value may not be any higher than it is now (30 HR 2B, 28 years old could net a few good prospects). Although the Marlins have said they do not plan to trade Dan, this year at least. P.J. Dean could become a mid-rotation starter according to Baseball America, but I don't buy it. He has never played above A- ball, where he only struck out 34 in 46 IP. He was ranked 30th among Nationals prospects. Jake Smolinski was ranked 11th among National prospects, yet has never played above A ball and in A ball, hit only .261 with a .402 SLG in 184 ABs. Plus, Hanley Ramirez is clogging that hole right now - He is pretty good, right?

Nats win the deal. I never thought I'd say this, but Jim Bowden pulled off a steal.

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